The characteristics and dynamic mechanism of regional development and evolution of Pan’an Lake
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摘要: 煤炭资源开采活动直接或间接影响城市的发展演变及其特征，明确其背后动因机制有利于城市的可持续发展。徐州市贾汪区原为重要的煤炭生产基地，潘安湖区域则为贾汪煤炭生产的主要区域。以潘安湖区域为研究对象，分析在煤炭开采活动影响下，其发展演变特征，并选取社会环境、经济发展、政策管控、资源环境为影响该区域发展演变的驱动力因子，运用主成分分析法确定主要驱动力及机制。结果表明，潘安湖区域发展演变特征体现在4个方面：(1) 土地利用从破损的采矿迹地到功能完善的城镇空间体系；(2) 道路交通从孤立的交通干道到系统的城市网络；(3) 产业结构从主体煤炭转向多元产业支撑；(4) 空间结构从采煤塌陷影响区到城市发展建设区。依据分析结果可知，对潘安湖区域发展演变发挥重要推动作用的是以人为主体所产生的经济发展与社会环境两大因素，资源环境的采煤塌陷地因素则间接推动该区域的发展演变。基于潘安湖区域内的发展特征以及区域内外的发展动力机制，为该区域可持续发展提出以下3点优化建议：一是加强国土空间管控，合理配置土地资源；二是合理谋划发展时序，实施阶段式建设；三是“产业”与“空间”转型同步发展。Abstract: Coal mining activities will directly or indirectly affect the development and evolution of cities and their characteristics. Jiawang District of Xuzhou used to be an important coal production base in China, and Pan’an Lake region is the main area of Jiawang coal production. This paper takes Pan’an Lake region as the research object, analyzes the characteristics of its development and evolution under the influence of coal mining activities, selects social environment, economic development, policy control and resource environment as the driving factors affecting the development and evolution of the area, and uses principal component analysis to determine the main driving factors. The results show that the characteristics of regional development and evolution of Pan’an Lake are reflected in four aspects: (1) Land use from damaged mining sites to fully functional urban spatial system; (2) Road traffic from isolated trunk roads to systematic urban networks; (3) The industrial structure has shifted from the main coal to the support of diversified industries; (4) The spatial structure ranges from coal mining subsidence affected area to urban development and construction area. According to the analysis results, it can be seen that the two major factors of economic development and social environment generated by people play an important role in promoting the development and evolution of Pan’an Lake region, while the mining subsidence factors of resources and environment indirectly promote the development and evolution of the region. Based on the development characteristics of Pan’an Lake region and the development dynamic mechanism inside and outside the region, the following optimization suggestions are put forward for the sustainable. First, strengthen the control of land space and allocate land resources reasonably; Second, reasonably plan the development sequence and implement phased construction; Third, the transformation of “industry” and “space” develops synchronously.
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图 3 2008年与2018年潘安湖区域土地利用现状
Fig. 3 Land use status in Pan’an Lake area in 2008 and 2018
图 4 徐州潘安湖采煤塌陷地生态修复规划体系
Fig. 4 Ecological restoration planning system of Pan’an Lake mining subsidence area
表 1 潘安湖采煤塌陷地综合治理政策背景
Table 1 Comprehensive control policy background of Pan’an Lake coal mining subsidence
颁布时间 政策条例 相关内容 2001 《徐州市采煤塌陷地复垦条例》 进行采煤塌陷地复垦开发，完善农田水利、林网、道路等配套设施 2004 《徐州市采煤塌陷地复垦条例(2004修正)》 根据国家、省有关法律、法规规定，结合徐州市实际情况，有序开展保障煤塌陷地复垦工作，鼓励和加强采煤塌陷地的复垦工作，改善生态环境 2008 《振兴徐州市老工业基地的战略决策》 根据采煤塌陷地的塌陷状况，加快整治和生态修复步伐，尽快使塌陷地变为耕地、生态景观等可利用资源。调整提高采煤塌陷地征收、采煤塌陷地复垦、压煤村庄搬迁、农作物损失补偿标准 2011 《徐州市土地利用总体规划(2006—2020年)》 针对采煤塌陷地和关闭破产矿山土地利用问题，加快采煤塌陷地复垦治理与生态修复，盘活利用工矿存量土地，积极推进农村居民点整理提供了重要的外部环境 2012 《关于开展工矿废弃地复垦利用试点工作的通知》
(国土资发[2012]45号)将历史遗留的工矿废弃地以及交通、水利等基础设施废弃地加以复垦，在治理改善矿山环境基础上，与新增建设用地相挂钩，盘活和合理调整建设用地，确保建设用地总量不增加，耕地面积不减少、质量有提高 2014 《江苏省工矿废弃地复垦利用试点管理办法》 编制工矿废弃地复垦利用专项规划，确定复垦的目标任务、项目布局和时序安排，提出调整利用方向和布局 2017 《徐州市采煤沉陷区综合治理实施方案(2017—2020年)》 创新采煤沉陷区治理模式，注重改善区域居民生活条件，建立健全长效治理机制 
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表 2 研究区发展演变驱动力指标因子体系
Table 2 Index system of driving forces for the development of research area
驱动力要素 社会环境 经济发展 政策管控 资源环境 驱动力因子指标 乡镇总人口(X1)
非农业人口(X2)
就业人口(X4)
农民人均纯收入(X5)GDP(X6)
第一产业值(X7)
第二产业值(X8)
第三产业值(X9)
工业总产值(X12)固定资产投资完成额(X10)
财政总收入(X11)耕地面积(X3)
建成区面积(X13)常规因子指标 政策因子(X14) 采煤塌陷地(X15) 特殊因子指标
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表 3 驱动力因子变量相关系数矩阵
Table 3 Correlation coefficient matrix of driving force factor variables
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X1 1 X2 0.818 1 X3 0.797 0.732 1 X4 −0.020 0.460 −0.030 1 X5 −0.684 −0.302 −0.788 0.606 1 X6 −0.404 0.073 −0.267 0.865 0.754 1 X7 −0.694 −0.314 −0.754 0.621 0.984 0.814 1 X8 −0.397 0.077 −0.221 0.852 0.713 0.997 0.778 1 X9 −0.342 0.116 −0.397 0.883 0.854 0.939 0.888 0.910 1 X10 −0.501 −0.032 −0.508 0.804 0.902 0.941 0.930 0.917 0.969 1 X11 −0.085 0.227 0.041 0.722 0.390 0.756 0.507 0.759 0.702 0.600 1 X12 −0.473 −0.115 −0.143 0.623 0.529 0.897 0.632 0.920 0.716 0.744 0.723 1 X13 −0.483 −0.156 −0.744 0.540 0.877 0.535 0.809 0.486 0.695 0.754 0.139 0.215 1
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表 4 驱动力因子公因子方差
Table 4 Common factor variance of driving factors
指标因子变量 初始 提取值 乡镇总人口(X1) 1 0.945 非农业人口(X2) 1 0.979 耕地面积(X3) 1 0.969 就业人口(X4) 1 0.961 农民人均纯收入(X5) 1 0.986 GDP(X6) 1 0.989 第一产业值(X7) 1 0.983 第二产业值(X8) 1 0.980 第三产业值(X9) 1 0.979 固定资产投资完成额(X10) 1 0.976 财政总收入(X11) 1 0.788 工业总产值(X12) 1 0.963 建成区面积(X13) 1 0.960
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表 5 驱动力因子特征值及主成分贡献率
Table 5 Characteristic value and principal component contribution rate of driving force
成分 特征值 贡献率/% 累积贡献率/% 1 8.254584 63.4968 63.4968 2 3.017949 23.2150 86.7118 3 1.186676 9.1283 95.8401 4 0.313371 2.4105 98.2506 5 0.100187 0.7707 99.0213 6 0.065177 0.5014 99.5226 7 0.041274 0.3175 99.8401 8 0.011876 0.0914 99.9315 9 0.007294 0.0561 99.9876 10 0.001613 0.0124 1 11 0 0 1 12 0 0 1 13 0 0 1
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表 6 驱动力因子主成分旋转载荷矩阵
Table 6 Principal component rotation load matrix of driving force factors
指标因子变量 第一主成分 第二主成分 第三主成分 乡镇总人口(X1) 0.579 0.704 0.338 非农业人口(X2) 0.128 0.887 0.419 耕地面积(X3) 0.551 0.801 −0.155 就业人口(X4)
农民人均纯收入(X5)
GDP(X6)−0.788
−0.921
−0.9460.537
−0.310
0.2760.226
0.206
−0.133第一产业值(X7) −0.955 −0.253 0.077 第二产业值(X8) −0.924 0.301 −0.188 第三产业值(X9) −0.955 −0.253 0.077 固定资产投资完成额(X10) −0.924 0.301 −0.188 财政总收入(X11) −0.656 0.519 −0.298 工业总产值(X12) −0.785 0.235 −0.540 建成区面积(X13) −0.736 −0.330 0.557
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