断层防水煤柱可靠度分析

Reliability analysis of coal pillar for flood prevention

摘要: 为了合理设计防水煤岩柱的宽度,使用了可靠度分析的“JC”方法,分析了水压力、煤层抗张强度及突水系数的不确定性,建立了防水煤柱可靠度分析的极限状态方程。并计算了与防水煤柱有关的可靠度指标、失效概率和安全系数。参考其它事故的死亡率,防水煤柱的失效概率为1× 10 ^-5~1× 10 ^-6比较合适。

Abstract: In order to design the width of barrier pillar reasonably,the "JC" method for reliability is used.Limit state equations for reliability of barrier pillar are given after analzing randomness of hydraulic pressure,tensile strength of coal bed and coeffcient of water inrush.This paper calculates reliability index,lose efficacy probability and safety coefficient corresponding to the width of different barrier pillar.In contrast with other accidents,the lose efficacy probability of the barrier pillar ranges suitably in 1×10 ^-5~1×10 ^-6.