Spatial-temporal distribution of outburst accidents from 2001 to 2020 in China and suggestions for prevention and control
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摘要: 防治煤与瓦斯突出是保障煤矿安全高效开采和国家能源稳定供应的前提条件。近期频发的煤矿瓦斯突出事故(2021年3月25日左权煤矿突出事故、4月9日东风煤矿突出事故)造成12人死亡，再次表明实现“零突出”的目标还有非常艰巨的路程要走。针对当前突出机理不清、突出事故频发现状，开展我国2001—2020年突出事故统计分析，数据显示，20年共发生突出事故484起、死亡3 195人，尽管近年来突出事故得到有效控制，然而在煤矿事故中仍处于相对较高水平且愈加突显。在此基础上，进一步从突出事故等级、发生地点、发生时间等方面分析2011—2020年突出事故时空分布规律，结果表明：12个省(直辖市)近10年共发生突出事故93起、死亡645人，其中较大突出事故持续占据主导地位、特别重大突出事故死亡人数常年居高不下、一般突出事故占比逐渐上升；突出事故具有“分布范围广、分布较为集中、南多北少、南重北轻”的地域分布特点，其中贵州省、湖南省、云南省、河南省4省最为严重，累计占总事故起数和死亡人数的68%和79%；突出事故集中发生在每年的5—7月和11—12月，每月的4—6日、15—17日和28—29日，每日的1—2时、5—6时、10—12时和17—20时等时段。针对突出事故呈现出高低交替的周期性发展规律，从安全管理的角度指出，必须将防突措施落实到每一天、每一班的生产中，越是突出事故低发期，越要加强安全管理，长期保持“安全意识增强—事故低发期—安全意识增强”的良性循环是突出防控的核心思路。Abstract: Prevention and control of coal and gas outburst is a prerequisite to ensure the safe and efficient mining of coal mines and the stable supply of national energy. Two outburst accidents(Zuoquan Coal Mine outburst accident on March 25 and Dongfeng Coal Mine outburst accident on April 9) occurred in 2021 resulting in 12 deaths, indicating that there is still a very difficult way to go before we achieve the goal of "zero outburst". In view of the current situation of unclear outburst mechanism and frequent outburst accidents, this paper makes statistics data of outburst accidents in China from 2001 to 2020. There were 484 outburst accidents and 3 195 deaths in the past 20 years. Although the outburst accidents have been effectively controlled in recent years, they are still at a relatively high level and more prominent in coal mine accidents. The spatial-temporal distribution law of outburst accidents in China from 2011 to 2020 is further analyzed from the aspects of the grade, place and time of outburst accidents. The results show that there were 93 outburst accidents and 645 deaths in 12 provinces, among which the major outburst accidents continue to dominate, and the death toll of extraordinarily major outburst accidents remains high throughout the year, and the proportion of general outburst accidents increases gradually. The outburst accidents are characterized by "wide and concentrated distribution, more cases and more serious in the south of China". Guizhou Province, Hunan Province, Yunnan Province and Henan Province are the most serious provinces, accounting for 68% and 79% of the total number of accidents and death toll. The outburst accidents mainly occur in May to July and November to December every year, on the 4th-6th, 15th-17th and 28th-29th of each month, 1-2 o'clock, 5-6 o'clock, 10-12 o'clock and 17-20 o'clock every day. The outburst accidents present the periodic development law of high and low alternation. From the perspective of safety management, the outburst prevention measures must be implemented in every day and every shift of production, and the safety management should be strengthened in the period of low incidence of outburst accidents. The long-term virtuous cycle of "enhancing safety awareness-low incidence of accidents-enhancing safety awareness" is the core concept of outburst prevention and control.
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图 1 2001—2020年煤炭产量、煤矿事故死亡人数及百万吨死亡率
Fig. 1 Coal production, coal mine accident deaths and death rate per million tons from 2001 to 2020
图 2 2001—2020年突出事故起数、死亡人数及平均死亡人数
Fig. 2 The number of outburst accidents, death toll and average death toll from 2001 to 2020
图 3 2011—2020年不同等级突出事故起数与死亡人数的占比
Fig. 3 The proportion of number and death toll of outburst accidents under different grades from 2011 to 2020
图 4 2011—2020年全国各省份突出事故起数和死亡人数统计
Fig. 4 Statistics on outburst accidents number and death toll in various provinces of China from 2011 to 2020
图 5 2011—2020年全国突出事故起数与死亡人数及平均死亡人数分布
Fig. 5 Distribution of outburst accidents number, death toll and average death toll of China from 2011 to 2020
图 6 2011—2020年突出事故起数和死亡人数的日期分布
Fig. 6 Date distribution of the number and death toll of outburst accidents from 2011 to 2020
图 7 2011—2020年突出事故起数和死亡人数的时段分布雷达图
Fig. 7 Time distribution radar chart of the number and death toll of outburst accidents from 2011 to 2020
表 1 2011—2020年突出事故统计数据
Table 1 Statistical data of outburst accidents from 2011 to 2020
年度 一般事故 较大事故 重大事故 特别重大事故 合计 起数 死亡人数 起数 死亡人数 起数 死亡人数 起数 死亡人数 起数 死亡人数 2011 2 4 16 98 4 58 1 43 23 203 2012 0 0 12 57 2 40 0 0 14 97 2013 2 2 7 42 3 49 0 0 12 93 2014 0 0 5 26 3 33 0 0 8 59 2015 1 2 8 36 1 13 0 0 10 51 2016 1 2 2 8 1 23 0 0 5 33 2017 1 2 3 12 1 12 0 0 5 26 2018 4 7 2 9 1 13 0 0 7 29 2019 2 3 4 20 1 16 0 0 7 39 2020 0 0 2 15 0 0 0 0 2 15 合计 13 22 61 323 17 257 1 43 93 645 
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