连会青, 杨俊文, 韩瑞刚, 孟璐, 韩永. 基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制[J]. 煤田地质与勘探, 2020, 48(1): 120-128. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2020.01.016
引用本文: 连会青, 杨俊文, 韩瑞刚, 孟璐, 韩永. 基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制[J]. 煤田地质与勘探, 2020, 48(1): 120-128. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2020.01.016
LIAN Huiqing, YANG Junwen, HAN Ruigang, MENG Lu, HAN Yong. “Scenario-response”-based emergency decision-making mechanism of mine water inrush disaster[J]. COAL GEOLOGY & EXPLORATION, 2020, 48(1): 120-128. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2020.01.016
Citation: LIAN Huiqing, YANG Junwen, HAN Ruigang, MENG Lu, HAN Yong. “Scenario-response”-based emergency decision-making mechanism of mine water inrush disaster[J]. COAL GEOLOGY & EXPLORATION, 2020, 48(1): 120-128. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2020.01.016

基于“情景-应对”的矿井水灾事故应急决策机制

“Scenario-response”-based emergency decision-making mechanism of mine water inrush disaster

  • 摘要: 为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求,针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点,运用多案例分析法,解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故,提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念,定义了集合突水水源,突水通道,采掘方式,出水量,淹没范围,生存空间为矿井水灾事故的情景,并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径,详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程,并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制,案例推演应用表明,该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程,而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。

     

    Abstract: The urgency, complexity and uncertainty of mine flood accidents determine that traditional emergency decision-making models are difficult to meet the requirements of efficient emergency rescue. Using the “scenario-response” model for emergency decision-making of mine flood accidents can effectively solve the timely real-time decision-making of specific disaster scenario after disasters occur. Using a multi-case analysis method to analyze 11 typical mine flood accidents in recent years, based on the general structural description of the accident, six elements of the mine flood scenario were summarized(inrush water source, water inrush channel, water inrush position, water output, submerged range, living space) as the scenario of mine flood accident. And AHP analysis method was used to calculate the weight of each element. A way to achieve “scenario-response” was established, the method of constructing the scenario library, the case library, the countermeasure library and the generation process of the “scenario-response” type mine flood emergency decision-making scheme were elaborated in detail. And a multi-stage mine flood accident emergency decision-making mechanism with "gold 72 hours" and "8 days 8 nights" was put forward as time nodes. Case deduction application shows that the emergency decision-making mechanism not only regulates the emergency response process, but also achieves precise, fast, and efficient goals.

     

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