黄欢, 刘其声, 姬亚东. 基于R/S分析法的等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型预测矿井涌水量[J]. 煤田地质与勘探, 2016, 44(6): 92-95,100. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2016.06.017
引用本文: 黄欢, 刘其声, 姬亚东. 基于R/S分析法的等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型预测矿井涌水量[J]. 煤田地质与勘探, 2016, 44(6): 92-95,100. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2016.06.017
HUANG Huan, LIU Qisheng, JI Yadong. Prediction of mine water inflow through equal-dimension gray filling dynamic GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis[J]. COAL GEOLOGY & EXPLORATION, 2016, 44(6): 92-95,100. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2016.06.017
Citation: HUANG Huan, LIU Qisheng, JI Yadong. Prediction of mine water inflow through equal-dimension gray filling dynamic GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis[J]. COAL GEOLOGY & EXPLORATION, 2016, 44(6): 92-95,100. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-1986.2016.06.017

基于R/S分析法的等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)模型预测矿井涌水量

Prediction of mine water inflow through equal-dimension gray filling dynamic GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis

  • 摘要: 针对矿井涌水量时间序列的分形与灰色特征,采用重标极差分析法(R/S分析法)确定涌水量时间序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期,在一个周期内建立等维灰数递补动态GM(1,1)预测模型。充分利用最新信息,提高模型预测精度。运用基于R/S分析法的GM(1,1)模型对陕北某矿矿井涌水量进行分析预测,结果表明,模型拟合程度好,预测精度高,能够为矿井安全生产提供决策依据。

     

    Abstract: Aiming at the fractal and gray characteristics of time sequence of mine water inflow, R/S analysis was used to determine Hurst index and average cycle period of time sequence of mine water inflow, the equal-dimension gray filling dynamic prediction model GM(1,1) was set up with a cycle. The up-to-date information was fully used to improve the prediction accuracy of the model. GM(1,1) model based on R/S analysis was applied to predict the inflow in a mine in Northern Shaanxi Province. The result showed that the model had good fitting degree and high prediction accuracy, and it could provide decision basis for safe production in mines.

     

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