宁永香,崔希民,崔建国. 基于ABC-GRNN组合模型的露天矿边坡变形预测[J]. 煤田地质与勘探,2023,51(3):65−72. DOI: 10.12363/issn.1001-1986.22.08.0608
引用本文: 宁永香,崔希民,崔建国. 基于ABC-GRNN组合模型的露天矿边坡变形预测[J]. 煤田地质与勘探,2023,51(3):65−72. DOI: 10.12363/issn.1001-1986.22.08.0608
NING Yongxiang,CUI Ximin,CUI Jianguo. Deformation prediction of open-pit mine slope based on ABC-GRNN combined model[J]. Coal Geology & Exploration,2023,51(3):65−72. DOI: 10.12363/issn.1001-1986.22.08.0608
Citation: NING Yongxiang,CUI Ximin,CUI Jianguo. Deformation prediction of open-pit mine slope based on ABC-GRNN combined model[J]. Coal Geology & Exploration,2023,51(3):65−72. DOI: 10.12363/issn.1001-1986.22.08.0608

基于ABC-GRNN组合模型的露天矿边坡变形预测

Deformation prediction of open-pit mine slope based on ABC-GRNN combined model

  • 摘要: 准确预测露天矿边坡变形是有效实现边坡临灾预警的重要保证,针对传统边坡变形预测方法无法表征和综合分析边坡变形受多种因素的影响,提出一种露天矿边坡变形的人工蜂群(ABC)算法优化广义回归网络(GRNN)组合预测模型(ABC-GRNN)。在此预测模型中,综合考虑了影响露天矿边坡变形的5个因素:开采扰动、降雨量、降雨持续时间、温度以及湿度。以山西中煤平朔安家岭露天矿为例,通过遗传算法改进BP神经网络(GA-BPNN)、支持向量机(SVM)等人工智能算法与实测变形数据进行预测效果对比分析。结果表明:ABC算法能够快速帮助GRNN寻优获取合适的传递参数,并对变形进行有效的预测。ABC-GRNN组合预测模型,将预测结果的平均绝对误差292.9 mm、平均绝对百分比误差0.691 3%及均方根误差338.9 mm分别降低到25 mm、0.043 3%和29.5 mm,说明该模型具有更高的预测精度;ABC-GRNN模型比其他模型收敛速度快,只经过7步的迭代,即可得到最小的均方误差。与其他预测模型相比较,本文模型的预测精度更高、泛化能力更强、收敛速度更快,有较高的实用价值。

     

    Abstract: Accurate prediction of slope deformation in open-pit mine is an important guarantee for effective disaster early warning of slope. The traditional slope deformation prediction method is unable to characterize and comprehensively analyze the effect of various factors on slope deformation. In view of this, the combined prediction model (ABC-GRNN) of an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) and the optimized generalized regression neural network (GRNN) was proposed for slope deformation in open-pit mine. In this prediction model, the following 5 factors affecting the slope deformation of open-pit mine are considered comprehensively: mining disturbance, rainfall, rainfall duration, temperature and humidity. Herein, the prediction results were compared and analyzed in combination with the measured deformation data and the artificial intelligence algorithms, such as genetic algorithm improved BP neural network (GA-BPNN) and support vector machine (SVM), based on Pingshuo Anjialing open-pit mine of China National Coal Group Corp.. The research results show that ABC algorithm could quickly help GRNN to optimize the appropriate transfer parameters and effectively predict the deformation. ABC-GRNN combined prediction model reduces the average absolute error from 292.9 mm, the average absolute percentage error of 0.691 3% and the root mean square error of 338.9 mm to 25 mm, 0.043 3% and 29.5 mm, respectively, which shows that the model has higher prediction accuracy. In addition, ABC-GRNN model converges faster than other models, and the minimum mean square error can be obtained through only 7 iterations. Compared with other prediction models, this model has higher prediction accuracy, stronger generalization ability and faster convergence speed, with higher practical value.

     

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