基于多方法的煤层底板突水危险性评价

任君豪; 王心义; 王麒; 王俊智; 张波; 郭水涛

doi:10.12363/issn.1001-1986.21.06.0342

基于多方法的煤层底板突水危险性评价

doi: 10.12363/issn.1001-1986.21.06.0342

任君豪^1,,
王心义^{1, 2, 3, ,},
王麒⁴,
王俊智⁵,
张波⁶,
郭水涛⁷

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41802186，41972254)；河南省创新型科技人才队伍建设工程项目(CXTD2016053)

详细信息

第一作者:
任君豪，1996年生，男，河南焦作人，硕士研究生，从事矿井水文地质的研究工作. E-mail：740549966@qq.com

通信作者:
王心义，1963年生，男，河南睢县人，博士，教授，博士生导师，从事矿井水文地质和地热水文地质的研究工作. E-mail：wangxy@hpu.edu.cn

中图分类号: TD745⁺.2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-06-26
- 修回日期: 2021-11-25
- 录用日期: 2022-02-25
- 发布日期: 2022-02-01
- 网络出版日期: 2022-02-11

Risk assessment of water inrush from coal seam floors based on multiple methods

REN Junhao^1
,,
WANG Xinyi^{1, 2, 3
, ,},
WANG Qi⁴,
WANG Junzhi⁵,
ZHANG Bo⁶,
GUO Shuitao⁷

摘要

摘要: 选择平顶山煤田二矿、十矿和十二矿51个钻孔的隔水层厚度、断层复杂程度、含水层水压、含水层单位涌水量、采高5个因素为评价因子，以层次分析法和灰色关联分析法计算的常权权重为基础，应用变权理论确定各指标因子的变权权重；分别利用物元可拓法、模糊可变集理论、突变理论、模糊综合评价法，对煤层底板突水危险性进行评价并确定突水危险性等级。与实际开采情况的对比分析证明，模糊可变集理论是最适宜研究区的底板突水危险性评价方法，评价结果与开采实际较为吻合。模糊可变集理论的评价表明，二矿、十矿、十二矿带压区内安全区占比分别为4.08%、14.30%、0，低威胁区占比分别为76.91%、83.14%、85.78%，高威胁区占比分别为19.01%、2.56%、14.22%，研究区内暂无危险区。
- 多指标因子 /
- 变权理论 /
- 多方法 /
- 突水危险性评价 /
- 平顶山煤田
Abstract: Five factors including the thickness of the aquifer, the complexity of the fault, the water pressure of the aquifer, the unit water inflow of the aquifer, and mining height of 51 boreholes in No.2, No.10 and No.12 Coal Mines of Pingdingshan Coalfield are selected as the index factors. On the basis of the constant weight calculated by the analytic hierarchy process and grey relational analysis, the variable weights of each index factor are determined by applying the variable weight theory. By using the matter-element extension method, fuzzy variable set theory, catastrophe theory, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the water inrush risk of coal seam floors is evaluated and the water inrush risk grade is determined. The comparative analysis of the actual mining situation shows that the fuzzy variable set theory is the most suitable method for risk evaluation of floor water inrush in the study area, and its evaluation results are more consistent with the actual situation. The evaluation based on the fuzzy variable set theory shows that the proportions of safety zones in the pressure zones of No.2, No.10 and No.12 Coal Mine are 4.08%, 14.30% and 0 respectively; the proportions of low threat zones are 76.91%, 83.14% and 85.78% respectively; and the proportions of high threat zones are 19.01%, 2.56% and 14.22% respectively. There is no danger zones in the study area temporarily.
- multi index factors /
- variable weight theory /
- multiple methods /
- risk evaluation of water inrush /
- Pingdingshan Coalfield

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图 1 平煤3矿带压开采区分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of the mining area under pressure in three coal mines of Pingdingshan Coalfield

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图 2 研究区综合柱状图

Fig. 2 Comprehensive drill log of the study area

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图 3 突水危险性评价指标

Fig. 3 Risk assessment index of water inrush

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图 4 不同评价方法的分区结果

Fig. 4 Zoning results of different evaluation methods

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表 1 指标因子赋值结果

Table 1 Quantitative results of index factors

钻孔编号	水压/ MPa	单位涌水量/ (L·s^–1·m^–1)	采高/m	隔水层厚度/ m	断层分维值	钻孔编号	水压/ MPa	单位涌水量/ (L·s^–1·m^–1)	采高/m	隔水层厚度/ m	断层分维值
2-1	0.5264	0.1823	1.7857	15.7078	0.8873	10-14	0.5043	0.0260	3.2647	81.542 0	0.7971
2-2	0.5498	0.5179	1.1823	13.6815	0.8451	10-15	0.5423	0.0282	3.1189	82.1374	0.9044
2-3	0.5951	1.0808	0.8679	17.7004	0.8109	10-16	0.5993	0.0302	3.0602	82.4651	0.9421
2-4	0.5422	0.9490	1.3912	26.4058	0.8187	10-17	2.7756	0.0598	3.6500	80.4300	0.7061
2-5	0.4305	0.1383	1.8936	17.3044	0.8994	10-18	2.8397	0.0422	5.9700	90.8400	0.7189
2-6	0.4690	0.5098	1.0765	14.4888	0.8094	10-19	2.3782	0.0423	6.0500	80.7900	0.7263
2-7	0.4893	0.8019	0.5544	15.2181	0.7758	10-20	2.0213	0.0500	6.8500	80.4600	0.6412
2-8	0.4766	0.8624	1.2257	26.6466	0.7710	均值	1.2589	0.0373	3.4389	81.6309	0.7712
2-9	0.6630	0.8510	2.0224	21.4843	1.0173	12-1	2.4407	0.2270	3.8264	96.5309	1.3096
2-10	0.5544	0.6932	0.4939	47.7589	1.0935	12-2	2.2979	0.2171	3.8397	96.1909	1.4242
2-11	0.5196	0.5300	1.3141	24.6479	1.0710	12-3	2.1736	0.2102	3.8456	95.9022	1.4172
2-12	0.5008	0.4043	1.2788	27.4785	1.2944	12-4	2.0924	0.2070	3.8452	95.7255	1.3979
2-13	0.4200	0.2901	0.4778	44.9826	0.9643	12-5	1.9033	0.1772	3.886 0	95.4657	1.3484
均值	0.5182	0.6008	1.1973	24.1158	0.9275	12-6	1.9769	0.1762	3.8932	95.6592	1.3415
10-1	1.4983	0.0445	3.7437	80.4339	0.6467	12-7	2.0958	0.1744	3.8988	96.0221	1.2593
10-2	1.4933	0.0424	2.8745	80.7430	0.8418	12-8	2.2692	0.1695	3.8883	96.6785	1.0193
10-3	1.4670	0.0405	2.1031	81.3042	0.8663	12-9	2.3353	0.1607	4.2111	85.0839	0.9195
10-4	1.3477	0.0398	1.8075	81.3466	0.8758	12-10	2.2600	0.1721	4.3811	85.2341	1.0433
10-5	1.2036	0.0387	1.4863	81.3504	0.8690	12-11	2.2195	0.1715	4.4278	85.2874	1.0911
10-6	1.1725	0.0396	1.8767	80.8842	0.9033	12-12	1.9786	0.1560	4.3077	85.5304	1.2130
10-7	1.1372	0.0414	2.6234	80.4273	0.7367	12-13	1.7789	0.1271	3.9184	85.8249	1.1442
10-8	1.1241	0.0436	3.2502	80.2976	0.4695	12-14	1.8601	0.1044	3.7705	85.6541	0.9105
10-9	0.6766	0.0309	3.1735	82.2445	0.9084	12-15	1.8642	0.0198	3.3054	85.2398	0.7989
10-10	0.6599	0.0294	3.2959	81.9122	0.8618	12-16	2.9500	0.3318	5.7449	84.9238	0.9477
10-11	0.6327	0.0262	3.5113	81.2258	0.7215	12-17	2.7900	0.3176	4.6595	84.6951	0.8017
10-12	0.6269	0.0248	3.6117	80.8190	0.6152	12-18	2.2300	0.0297	3.7427	84.3192	0.7926
10-13	0.4779	0.0247	3.4556	80.9642	0.6712	均值	2.1954	0.1750	4.0774	89.9982	1.1211

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表 2 各指标对应的变权区间

Table 2 Variable weight intervals of each index

评价因子	惩罚区间	不激励不惩罚区间	初激励区间	强激励区间
水压	0≤x<0.1899	0.1899≤x<0.4817	0.4817≤x<0.8649	0.8649≤x≤1
单位涌水量	0≤x<0.2250	0.2250≤x<0.5578	0.5578≤x<0.8350	0.8350≤x≤1
采高	0≤x<0.1508	0.1508≤x<0.3564	0.3564≤x<0.7414	0.7414≤x≤1
隔水层厚度	0≤x<0.0157	0.0157≤x<0.1012	0.1012≤x<0.3023	0.3023≤x≤1
断层分维值	0≤x<0.2978	0.2978≤x<0.4832	0.4832≤x<0.7427	0.7427≤x≤1

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表 3 不同参数条件下的计算结果

Table 3 Calculation results under different parameter conditions

参数	k=1, p=1	k=2, p=1	k=1, p=2	k=2, p=2	$\bar H$
级别特征值	2.031 3	1.972 3	2.112 7	2.049 8	2.046 4

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表 4 突水危险性评价指标及结果

Table 4 Water inrush risk assessment indexes and results

评价方法	不同指标评价结果
评价方法	水压	单位涌水量	采高	隔水层厚度	断层复杂程度
初始隶属函数	0.342 8	0.104 7	0.765 0	0.209 2	1
初始突变级数	0.585 5	0.471 3	0.874 6	0.593 6	1
中间变量指标值	0.528 4		0.734 1		1
中间突变级数值	0.726 9		0.902 1		1
总突变隶属函数值	0.876 3

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表 5 不同方法的底板突水危险性评价结果

Table 5 Risk assessment results by different methods

钻孔编号	物元可拓法	模糊可变集	突变理论	模糊综合评判	钻孔编号	物元可拓法	模糊可变集	突变理论	模糊综合评判
2-1	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅰ	10-14	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅰ
2-2	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	10-15	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ
2-3	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	10-16	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ
2-4	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	10-17	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
2-5	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	10-18	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ
2-6	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	10-19	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅳ
2-7	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅰ	10-20	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
2-8	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅰ	12-1	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
2-9	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	12-2	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
2-10	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅰ	12-3	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ
2-11	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	12-4	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
2-12	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	12-5	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
2-13	Ⅰ	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	12-6	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-1	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	12-7	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-2	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅳ	12-8	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅳ
10-3	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅳ	12-9	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-4	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅳ	12-10	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-5	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	12-11	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-6	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	12-12	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-7	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	12-13	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-8	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	12-14	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ
10-9	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅱ	12-15	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅰ
10-10	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	12-16	Ⅰ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ	Ⅲ
10-11	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅲ	12-17	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
10-12	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	12-18	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ
10-13	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅰ	Ⅰ

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表 6 二矿有效隔水层厚度

Table 6 Effective aquiclude thickness of No.2 Coal Mine

钻孔编号	隔水层厚度/m	有效隔水层厚度/m	钻孔编号	隔水层厚度/m	有效隔水层厚度/m
2-1	15.707 8	−4.412 2	2-8	26.646 6	6.526 6
2-2	13.681 5	−6.438 5	2-9	21.484 3	1.364 3
2-3	17.700 4	−2.419 6	2-10	47.758 9	27.638 9
2-4	26.405 8	6.285 8	2-11	24.647 9	4.527 9
2-5	17.304 4	−2.815 6	2-12	27.478 5	7.358 5
2-6	14.488 8	−5.631 2	2-13	44.982 6	24.862 6
2-7	15.218 1	−4.901 9	均值	24.12	3.99

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表 7 分区面积及其所占带压区比例

Table 7 Zoning areas and the proportions in the pressure zones

矿井名称	带压区域面积/km²	安全区		低威胁区		高威胁区
矿井名称	带压区域面积/km²	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
二矿	14.20	0.58	4.08	10.92	76.91	2.70	19.01
十矿	53.35	7.63	14.30	44.23	83.14	1.49	2.56
十二矿	27.81	0	0	23.86	85.78	3.95	14.22

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