用多变量时间序列相关模型预测矿井涌水量
TO FORECAST THE WATER YIELD OF COAL MINE APPLYING THE TIME SERIES INTERREIATED MODEL WITH MULTIVA RIATION
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摘要: 运用多变量时间序列分析方法,建立了南桐煤矿二井的涌水量与降雨量之间的相关模型,并将其用于矿井涌水量的预测。结果表明,南桐二井涌水量与降雨量呈滞后一个月、三个月和三年的关系。预测结果与实测值对比分析表明,本模型的预测结果精度较高。Abstract: The authors set up a interrelated model between precipitation and water yield of allotment No.2 of Nantong Coal Mine by time series analysis with multivariation. This model is used into the forecast of. water yield and the results. show that delay-periods of water yield of allotment No. 2 to precipitation are one month, three months and three years respectively. The forecastive values from the model gave quite good agreement with the measured values.