突水量数量化预测模型及其应用
QUANTITATIVE MODEL FOR PREDICTING MINE INFLOW AND ITS APPLICATION
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摘要: 选取对大煤底板八灰突水水量有影响的地质因素,如构造、岩溶、矿压、突水系数、新突水点至老突水点的最近距离为自变量,以最大突水量、稳定突水量为基准变量,用"数量化理论Ⅰ"将定性变量数量化,与定量变量联合建立焦作东部矿区的八灰突水量预测模型。经检验两个模型预测突水量相对误差小于1者大于72.5%,实测值与各自变量组合的复相关系数在0.7以上,对7个实际例子预测效果较好,从理论和实例上都说明所建模型可信,可用于焦作东区突水量的预测预报。Abstract: The models about maximum flow and stable flow L8 limestone aquifer in east part of Jiaozhuo Mine Area are established by quantifying the quality variables according to quantitative theory Ⅰ.In these models,the influential factors on mine flow,such as,geological structure,karst,inrush index,roof weight are selected as basic variables.The error of the two models about mine flow prediction are between 72.5% and 100% according to the tests.The complex correlation coefficient is over 0.7.The results of engineering use are good.The theory and practice show that the models are reliable in practical application.