深部煤炭资源预测思路与方法——以鄂尔多斯盆地石炭–二叠系为例

Prediction ideas and methods for the deep coal resources: a case study of the Car-boniferous-Permian system in the Ordos basin

  • 摘要:背景】我国深部煤炭资源潜力巨大,具有良好的开发利用前景,摸清深部煤炭资源的家底,是制定我国煤炭资源战略规划和深部煤炭资源科学开发利用的前提条件和基础工作。【方法】从我国煤炭资源形势出发,以深部煤炭资源赋存特点分析和资源类型划分为切入点,提出了深部煤炭资源预测思路和工作流程,开展了鄂尔多斯盆地石炭–二叠系深部煤炭资源预测。【结果和结论】将深部煤炭资源划分为现实可采和潜在可采2大类和5个亚类。现实可采的深部煤炭资源是指当前或近期可采用井工方式开采的煤炭资源,根据《煤炭深部资源开采中长期规划(2025—2035年)》进一步划分为1 000~1 200和>1 200~1 500 m深部煤炭资源2个亚类。潜在可采的深部煤炭资源是煤炭工业战略储备资源,依赖于科技突破采用原位流态化技术开采的煤炭资源,根据埋藏深度和开发前景进一步划分为>1 500~2 000、>2 000~3 000和>3 000~5 000 m这3个亚类。深部煤炭资源预测的主要制约因素在于资源赋存状态认知程度低、已知信息少、探测难度加大、多源异构信息的共享机制不健全等方面。因此,预测思路应以现代矿产资源预测和煤田地质理论为指导,以成煤作用和构造控煤研究为核心,以区域和浅部煤炭资源赋存规律研究为基础,广泛收集深部各类资料,充分利用深部钻探和深部地球物理勘探数据,注重多源异构数据融合,遵循由大到小、由浅入深、由粗至细的原则,循序渐进开展预测工作。工作流程概括为“多源资料收集→区域地质和浅部煤炭资源研究→深部煤炭资源赋存规律研究→深部煤炭资源预测”,工作重点包括预测参数的获取和资源级别的确定。根据上述思路与方法,开展了鄂尔多斯盆地太原组和山西组深部煤炭资源预测,更新了1 000~5 000 m预测资源数据,首次获得埋深2 000~5 000 m预测煤炭资源数量。全盆地1 000~5 000 m预测资源总量为18 835亿t。垂向资源丰度>2 000~3 000 m最大、>3 000~5 000 m次之、1 000~2 000 m最小。本次资源预测结果较全国煤炭资源潜力评价(2013)有所降低,与煤层厚度及预测面积有关。

     

    Abstract: Background Deep coal resources in China have significant potential and offer promising prospects for development and utilization. Assessing the deep coal resources is a prerequisite and fundamental work for formulating our national coal resources strategy and scientifically developing and utilizing deep coal resources. Research Thinking Based on the situation of coal resources in China, the occurrence characteristics of deep coal resources was analyzed and the types of deep coal resources were categorized, the prediction ideas and workflow for deep coal resources was proposed, and the prediction of deep coal resources in the Carboniferous-Permian of the Ordos Basin was carried out. Results and Conclusions The results indicate that deep coal resources are the ultimate products of coal measures after undergoing multi-phase tectono-thermal events. The term "deep" refers to the current preserved state of coal measures, not the origi-nal coal-forming basin. From the perspective of coal occurrence regularity, there is no fundamental difference between deep and shallow coal resources. The deep and shallow coal resources have basic characteristics such as comparability, continuity and gradual change. However, the unique geological conditions of "deep" environments, such as temperature, pressure, and fluid dynamics, determine significant differences in development methods, mining geological conditions, and detection techniques compared to "shallow" resources. Based on this, deep coal resources are classified into: cur-rently exploitable deep coal resources and potentially exploitable deep coal resources two major categories and five sub-categories. The currently exploitable deep coal resources refer to the coal resources that can be mined by underground methods at present or in the near future. According to the "Medium and Long-Term Plan for Deep Coal Resources Min-ing (2025-2035)", the currently exploitable deep coal resources are further classified into two subcategories: 1 000~1 200 m and 1 200~1 500 m deep coal resources. The potentially exploitable deep coal resources are strategic resources for the coal industry and coal resources that rely on technological breakthroughs and are mined using in-situ fluidization tech-nology. According to the burial depth and development prospects, the potentially exploitable deep coal resources are fur-ther classified into 1 500~2 000 m, 2 000~3 000 m, and 3 000~5 000 m three subcategories. The main constraints in the deep coal resources prediction include the limited understanding of the resource occurrence state, the scarcity of known information, the difficulty in detection, and inadequate sharing mechanisms for multi-source heterogeneous data. There-fore, the prediction ideas should be guided by modern mineral resource prediction and coalfield geological theories, with the research on coal formation and tectonic control of coal seams as the core, and based on the study of regional and shallow coal resource occurrence patterns. It is necessary to extensively collect deep geological and geophysical data, fully utilize deep drilling and deep geophysical exploration data, and pay attention to the integration of multi-source het-erogeneous data. Follow the principle of progressing from large to small, from shallow to deep, and from coarse to fine, the prediction work is carried out step by step. The workflow is summarized as " multi-source data collection → research on regional geology and shallow coal resources → research on the occurrence laws of deep coal resources → deep coal resource prediction," with key tasks including the parameter acquisition and resource classification determination. Based on the above ideas and methods, the deep coal resources for the Taiyuan Formation and Shanxi Formation in the Ordos Basin were predicted. The predicted resources data for the buried depth range of 1 000 to 5 000 meters was updated, and the quantity of predicted coal resources within the buried depth range of 2 000 to 5 000 meters was obtained for the first time. The total predicted resources for the Taiyuan Formation and Shanxi Formation amount to 18,835 billion tons within the buried depth range of 1 000 m to 5 000 m in the Ordos Basin. The vertical resource abundance is the largest in 2 000~3 000 m, followed by 3 000~5 000 m, and the smallest in 1 000~2 000 m. The results of this resource prediction have decreased compared to the national coal resource potential evaluation (2013), which is related to the thickness of the coal seam and the predicted area.

     

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