一种新的煤层气产出动态预测模型

详细信息

A new dynamic forecast model of coalbed methane production

College of Mineral Resource & Environmental Science, CUMT, Jjiangsu Xuzhou 221008, China

摘要: 运用灰色系统和时间序列分析理论,建立了一种用于煤层气产出量拟合与预测的动态模型——等维递补灰色-时序组合模型。将这一新的模型应用于山西沁水盆地南部潘庄地区某些典型煤层气井排采量数据的拟合与预测。结果表明,其对历史数据的拟合具有较高的精度,可以适用于煤层气排采的中长期预测。
- 煤层气 /
- 时间序列分析 /
- 灰色模型 /
- 动态模型 /
- 预测
Abstract: By using the theory of gray system and time series analysis a combined model of dimension-fixed and recursion-compensated gray-time series for the purpose of predicating the yield of coalbed methane is established.The application of this new model in the southern Qinshui basin shows that this model can fit the historical data precisely,then it can be used for predicting the future data of mid-long term well production
- coalbed methane /
- time series analysis /
- gray model /
- dynamic model /
- prediction