Abstract: Background Sandstone pore geothermal energy is a stable and efficient clean energy. However, the probability assessment and suitability identification of geothermal resources are still facing great challenges due to the heterogeneity of thermal reservoirs and the uncertainty of exploration. Methods In this paper, the geothermal resource potential of Guantao Formation in northwest Shandong Province is evaluated by volume method and Monte Carlo method. The multi-dimensional index system of sandstone thermal storage suitability is established from the characteristics of geothermal resources, geological structure attributes and social economy. The game combination weighting method is used to calculate the index weight and carry out quantitative evaluation of geothermal resources suitability. The evaluation results are verified by the spatial distribution of geothermal wells. Results and Conclusions The results indicate that the maximum probability geothermal resources of Guantao Formation in the northwest plain of Shandong Province are 5.68×10¹⁷ kJ, which is equivalent to 1.94×10¹⁰ t of standard coal. There is a 90% probability that the amount of geothermal resources is (4.75~6.32)×10¹⁷ kJ, and the average abundance of geothermal resources is 3.35×10¹³ kJ/km². The area of "better" suitability and above in the study area is 5 557 km², accounting for 35.63 %. The proportion of "poor" suitability is the lowest, only 14.32 %. Based on the comprehensive resource potential and suitability results, Dezhou latent fault depression in northwest Shandong plain is the first choice target area for geothermal exploration and development. The research outcomes can provide technical support for the optimization of geothermal resource exploration in key regions and the identification of target development zones.