基于ABC-BP模型的煤层含气量预测

Prediction of coal seam gas content based on ABC-BP model

  • 摘要: 煤层含气量预测是煤层气资源勘探开发利用前期的重要研究内容之一。近些年,BP神经网络算法常用于煤层含气量预测领域,但传统BP模型在训练过程中往往存在收敛速度慢、对初始值敏感以及易陷入局部极小值等问题。为此,提出了一种改进的以人工蜂群算法为特征的BP神经网络预测方法。以沁水盆地某工区3号煤层为研究对象,首先,利用R型聚类分析法对目标煤储层所提取的多种类型的地震属性进行分类,优选出4种对煤层含气量变化反应最敏感且相互独立的地震属性;再利用人工蜂群算法(ABC)寻找BP神经网络的输入层与隐含层的最优连接权值和隐含层的最优阈值,构建具有鲁棒性的ABC-BP神经网络预测模型,并以井位置优选地震属性和含气量数据为样本训练该模型;最后,以整个工区目标储层的优选地震属性为输入,进行工区内煤层含气量的预测。预测结果与各井含气量的变化趋势基本吻合,其中,训练井处的平均误差率为0.23%,验证井处的误差率低于15%,预测精度较高,因此,该预测方法可靠性高,适用性强,可有效用于煤层含气量预测。

     

    Abstract: It is valuable to exploit the coalbed-methane which is rich in our country. The prediction of gas content in coalbed methane reservoir is a key step in the early stage of development and utilization. In recent years, BP neural network algorithm has been often used in coalbed methane prediction, but the model has some shortcomings in the training process, such as slow convergence speed, sensitive to initial value and easy to fall into local minimum value. Therefore, this paper proposed an improved BP neural network prediction model characterized by artificial bee colony algorithm. Firstly, R-type cluster analysis was used to classify the seismic attributes extracted from the 3D seismic data, four seismic attributes which are most sensitive to the change of coalbed-methane and independent of each other were selected. Secondly, the artificial bee colony algorithm(ABC) was used to find the optimal connection weight of the input layer and the hidden layer and the optimal threshold of the hidden layer of BP neural network, to build a robust ABC-BP neural network prediction model, and the seismic attributes of well location and gas content data was used as samples to train the model. Finally, the coal seam gas content in the work area was predicted by taking the optimal seismic attributes of the target reservoir in the whole work area as input. The prediction results are basically consistent with the change trend of gas content in each well. Among them, the average error rate at the training well is 0.23%, and the error rate at the verification well is less than 15%. Therefore, the prediction method has high reliability and strong applicability, and can be effectively used for coal seam gas content prediction.

     

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