基于模糊层次分析–熵权法的深部优质储层评价方法以鄂尔多斯盆地中东部8号煤为例

‌Evaluation of deep high-quality reservoirs based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method: A case study of the No. 8 coal seam in the east-central Ordos Basin

  • 摘要:
    目的 鄂尔多斯盆地中东部深部8号煤煤层气勘探开发已经取得了重大突破,但针对8号煤储层大区尺度的综合定量评价体系尚未建立。
    方法 基于鄂尔多斯盆地中东部270余口井的测井、煤质与物性实测资料,采用模糊层次分析–熵权法,从赋存条件、煤层特征与储层物性3个层级构建了由9个关键指标(埋深、最小水平主应力梯度、镜质体反射率、厚度、光亮煤和半亮煤总占比、夹矸占比、灰分、孔隙度、渗透率)组成的深部煤储层综合评价体系,定量评价深部优质煤储层,进一步查明优质储层的发育特点和分布规律。
    结果和结论 (1) 研究区8号煤优质储层具有以下显著特点:煤层厚度大于6 m,光亮煤和半亮煤总占比超过85%,夹矸占比低于5%,灰分质量分数低于10%;煤层埋深介于1 800~3 000 m,最小水平主应力梯度小于1.65 MPa/hm,镜质体反射率(Rmax)在1.3%~2.5%,属于中高煤阶煤;孔隙度超过5%,渗透率大于0.1×10−3 μm2,具备良好的储气与流体流动能力。(2) 利用综合评价体系将8号煤划分为3类区:Ⅰ类区(综合评价指数I>0.65)占50%~60%,主要分布于神木–佳县–榆林及米脂–绥德–子洲一带,Ⅱ类区(0.45≤I≤0.65)占30%~35%,主要分布于研究区中北部和西南部,该类煤层灰分质量分数较高,埋深较大,物性较差;Ⅲ类区(I<0.45)面积约占10%,主要位于伊盟隆起与靖边南部。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective Significant breakthroughs have been achieved in the exploration and exploitation of coalbed methane (CBM) in the deep No. 8 coal seam within the east-central Ordos Basin. However, a comprehensive quantitative evaluation system at the regional scale is yet to be established for reservoirs in the No. 8 coal seam.
    Methods Based on logs, coal quality, and measured physical property data from over 270 wells in the east-central Ordos Basin, this study developed a comprehensive evaluation system for deep coal reservoirs using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process combined with the entropy weight method. Specifically, the evaluation system consisted of nine key indicators (i.e., burial depth, minimum horizontal principal stress gradient, vitrinite reflectance (Rmax), coal thickness, total proportion of bright and semi-bright coals, gangue proportion, ash content, porosity, and permeability) of three aspects, namely occurrence conditions, coal seam characteristics, and reservoir physical properties. Accordingly, this study conducted a quantitative evaluation of high-quality deep coal reservoirs and further determined their developmental characteristics and distribution patterns.
    Resultsand Conclusions  The high-quality reservoirs in the No. 8 coal seam within the east-central Ordos Basin exhibit a range of distinct characteristics, including coal seam thicknesses of greater than 6 m, total proportions of bright and semi-bright coals exceeding 85%, gangue proportions of less than 5%, and ash content of below 10%. The reservoirs manifest coal seam burial depths ranging between 1800 m and 3000 m, minimum horizontal principal stress gradients of less than 1.65 MPa/hm, and Rmax values varying from 1.3% to 2.5%, suggesting medium- to high-rank coals. Additionally, their porosity and permeability exceed 5% and 0.1 × 103 μm2, respectively, indicating high gas storage and fluid flow capacities. The comprehensive evaluation system reveals that the No. 8 coal seam can be divided into classes I, II, and III zones. Among these, class I zones, with comprehensive evaluation index (I) values of > 0.65, account for approximately 50%–60%, primarily distributed in the Shenmu-Jiaxian-Yulin and Mizhi-Suide-Zizhou areas. Class II zones, with 0.45 ≤ I ≤ 0.65, account for 30%–35% and are principally identified in the north-central and southwestern parts of the study area. In this class of zones, the No. 8 coal seam exhibits relatively high ash content, large burial depths, and poor physical properties. Class III zones, with I < 0.45, represent approximately 10% of the total area of the No. 8 coal seam, primarily distributed in the Yimeng uplift and the southern Jingbian area.

     

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