江苏省工业固定排放源CO2地质封存多尺度源汇匹配与路径优化

Multi-Scale Source-Sink Matching and Pathway Optimization for Geological CO2 Sequestration from Industrial Point Sources in Jiangsu Province

  • 摘要:
    目的 固定排放源分布离散,封存汇集中于特定沉积盆地,空间错配性显著,制约了碳捕集、利用与封存(CCUS)的规模化应用。因此,在多尺度空间框架下开展源汇匹配研究、优化CO2运输路径以降低CCUS系统成本,成为推动其工程化部署的关键。
    方法 以江苏省典型工业固定排放源及具备代表性的地质封存汇为研究对象,构建涵盖油气藏、凹陷及盆地的多尺度源汇匹配模型,并基于地理信息系统的最低成本路径规划方法与改进型管网优化策略,开展区域多尺度源汇匹配研究。
    结果和结论 (1) 截至2023年底,江苏省共识别269处典型工业固定排放源,年碳排放总量达6.26亿t,不同类型排放源在排放规模与空间分布上表现出一定差异。其中,火电行业碳排放占比最高。火电厂与钢铁厂主要分布于长江三角洲南部及沿江城市带,水泥厂多集中于苏南地区,而合成氨厂则呈现相对零散的分布特征。(2) 研究区内深部咸水层及B10、B11、B6等凹陷油藏展现出较高的CO2地质封存潜力,分别约为58.7亿t和7.28亿t。(3) 结合区域碳减排需求与源汇空间分布特征,构建了涵盖油气藏、凹陷与盆地多尺度的CCUS源汇匹配模型,模型运算结果表明油气藏、凹陷、盆地尺度(苏北、苏北–南黄河盆地)对应管网理论建设长度分别为238.9、398、3 873和4 100 km。在此基础上,融合地理信息系统与节约里程法运输网络优化策略开展运输路径优化,油气藏、凹陷尺度管道优化后建设里程分别为243.7、426 km,苏北、苏北–南黄河盆地尺度优化后管道里程分别为1 831 km和2 121 km,在有效降低管网建设成本的同时,形成了更契合地理环境与工程实施条件的优化型管网路径。研究成果可为我国东部沿海地区构建低成本、高适应性的CCUS运输路径提供理论依据与方法支撑。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change and the accelerated implementation of China’s dual carbon goals, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology has become a key pathway for deep decarbonization in high-emission industries, owing to its considerable mitigation potential and broad applicability. However, the spatial mismatch between widely dispersed stationary emission sources and geological storage sinks-concentrated mainly in specific sedimentary basins—remains a major barrier to large-scale CCUS deployment. To address this, multi-scale source-sink matching and the optimization of CO2 transportation routes are essential for reducing system costs and advancing engineering implementation. This study takes Jiangsu Province as a case, focusing on representative industrial stationary emission sources and geological storage sinks, and establishes a multi-scale CCUS source–sink matching model that integrates oil and gas reservoirs, structural depressions, and basin-scale domains. By combining a GIS-based least-cost path approach with an enhanced pipeline network optimization strategy, a comprehensive regional analysis was conducted. The main findings are as follows: (1) By the end of 2023, 269 typical industrial stationary emission sources were identified in Jiangsu Province, with a total annual CO2 emission of 6.26×104 Mt. Emission scale and spatial distribution vary by industry. The power sector contributes the largest share, with power plants and steel facilities concentrated in the southern Yangtze River Delta and along the Yangtze River corridor, cement plants mainly located in southern Jiangsu, and ammonia synthesis plants displaying a relatively scattered distribution. (2) Deep saline aquifers, together with oil reservoirs in depressions such as B10, B11, and B6, exhibit substantial geological storage potential, estimated at about 5.87×109 t and 7.28×108 t, respectively. (3) A multi-scale source-sink matching model was constructed considering regional emission reduction needs and spatial distribution characteristics. Model simulations indicate that the theoretical pipeline lengths required at the oil and gas reservoir, depression, and basin scales are 238.9, 398, 3 873, and 4 100 km, respectively. Based on this, optimized transportation paths were obtained by integrating GIS-based least-cost routing with the modified savings method. After optimization, the required pipeline lengths at the oil and gas reservoir and depression scales were adjusted to 243.7 km and 426 km, respectively, while at the basin scale, the optimized pipeline lengths were 1 831 km for the Subei Basin and 2121 km for the Subei-South Yellow River Basin. These optimizations not only significantly lower construction costs but also yield transportation routes more consistent with geographical settings and engineering feasibility. The results provide theoretical and methodological support for building low-cost, adaptable CCUS transportation networks in the coastal regions of eastern China.

     

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