Risk assessment of floor water inrush by weighted rank sum ratio based on combination weighting
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摘要: 煤层深部开采使得煤矿底板水害事故频发，传统突水危险性评价方法评价指标单一、评价结果偏离实际的弊端逐渐显露，造成众多新型评价方法涌现。以河北省华北型煤田东欢坨矿为研究对象，选取含水层性能、隔水层性能、地质条件、煤层条件的评价因素集，综合考虑10个评价因素，建立适用于东欢坨矿的底板突水危险性评价指标体系；利用层次分析法确定各指标主观权重，利用CRITIC法确定各指标客观权重，将2者耦合得到综合权重，兼顾专家主观经验与数据客观信息，保证权重确定的全面性；引入加权秩和比法，构建评价矩阵，依据指标对评价对象所产生的优劣性影响将其分为高优型指标和低优型指标，编秩计算WRSR值，对数据进行分档排序，确定安全、较安全、较危险、危险4个评价等级区间，形成评价模型；利用GIS强大的空间管理及信息处理功能，完成结果的信息展示；将评价结果与实际工程出水位置相比较，发现突水位置都在底板突水较危险区域，并与传统评价方法突水系数法相对比，证明评价模型有效。研究成果形成了煤层底板突水危险性评价新方法，丰富煤层底板突水危险性评价方法的种类，为煤矿防治水工作者提供新思路。Abstract: Deep mining of the coal seam causes frequent water hazards in the coal mine floor. As the disadvantages of traditional water inrush risk assessment methods, such as single evaluation index and deviation of the evaluation results from reality are gradually revealed, many new assessment methods are emerging. In this paper, Donghuantuo Coal Mine, a North China type coalfield, in Hebei province is taken as the research object. The evaluation factor sets including aquifer capacity, aquifuge capacity, geological conditions and coal seam conditions are selected, and with ten evaluation factors being considered, a floor water inrush risk evaluation index system applicable to Donghuantuo Coal Mine is established. AHP and CRITIC methods are adopted to determine the subjective weight and objective weight of each index, and then the two parts are coupled to obtain the comprehensive weight. In the process, the subjective experience of experts and objective data are taken into account to ensure the comprehensiveness of weight determination. By using the weighted rank sum ratio method, an evaluation matrix is constructed. And indexes are divided into high-optimality and low-optimality according to their impacts on the evaluation objects. By ranking and calculating the WRSR value, and sorting the data based on grades, an evaluation model is formed in which four evaluation levels are determined, including safe, safer, more dangerous and dangerous. The results are displayed by using powerful spatial management and information processing function of GIS. By comparing the evaluation results with water outlet positions in the actual project, it is found that these positions are in the more dangerous area of floor water inrush. The effectiveness of the evaluation model is proved by comparing the new method with the traditional water inrush coefficient method. The research forms a new method for assessing the risk of water inrush from the coal seam floor, which enriches the existing assessment methods and provides a new thought for coal mine water control workers.
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图 1 8煤层及其顶底板综合柱状图
Fig. 1 Comprehensive histogram of No.8 coal seam and its roof and floor
表 1 各指标权重值
Table 1 Weight of each indicator
指标因素 主观权重 客观权重 综合权重 指标因素 主观权重 客观权重 综合权重 渗透性 0.076 0.104 0.047 脆塑性岩厚度比 0.054 0.110 0.046 水压 0.317 0.066 0.255 底板破坏深度 0.234 0.066 0.041 富水性 0.038 0.138 0.100 隔水层厚度 0.044 0.104 0.388 断层规模 0.123 0.127 0.049 煤层厚度 0.017 0.102 0.038 构造复杂程度 0.064 0.117 0.023 煤层埋深 0.033 0.066 0.013 
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表 2 各数据组评价结果
Table 2 Evaluation results of each data group
组号 指标秩次 WRSR值 Probit值 渗透性 水压 富水性 断层规模 构造复杂程度 脆塑性岩厚度比 底板破坏深度 隔水层厚度 煤层厚度 煤层埋深 组1 8 2 8 8 9 7 2 6 5 2 0.523 3 5.253 组2 1 6 10 4 6 3 6 8 9 6 0.681 9 5.842 组3 6 8 1 1 5 1 8 10 3 8 0.705 8 6.281 组4 9 9 6 7 1 9 9 7 8 9 0.760 4 8.090 组5 7 4 2 9 8 10 4 1 2 4 0.331 4 3.718 组6 4 5 4 2 4 8 5 3 10 5 0.423 5 4.158 组7 3 1 9 10 10 4 1 9 6 1 0.597 4 5.553 组8 5 7 3 6 7 2 7 4 4 7 0.494 9 4.746 组9 10 3 7 3 3 5 3 5 7 3 0.474 9 4.475 组10 2 10 5 5 2 6 10 2 1 10 0.506 5 5.000
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表 3 数据组危险性等级划分
Table 3 Hazard grade classification of data groups
等级 百分数/% WRSR临界值 数据组 安全 ≥90 ≥0.705 8 组3、组4 较安全 <90 & ≥40 <0.705 8，≥0.494 9 组1、组2、组7、组8、组10 较危险 <40 & ≥20 <0.494 9，≥0.423 5 组6、组9 危险 <20 <0.423 5 组5
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